MLB: Pitching mismatch in Orioles-Tigers contest

MLB: Pitching mismatch in Orioles-Tigers contest

2010-07-06

If you consider nothing more than stats, there are some decisive starting pitching mismatches on the Tuesday night baseball slate, perhaps none bigger than that in Detroit between the Tigers’ Armando Galarraga and the Orioles’ Jake Arrieta. Not only that, but Detroit is in first place in the A.L. Central Division while Baltimore is in last in the A.L. East. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com opened the line for Tuesday’s contest at Tigers -170, but it has quickly shot up to -190 and could go much higher by game time, if bettors get a hold of a powerful system in play.

Galarraga (3-2, 4.50 ERA) was the talk of the majors when he essentially retired all 28 batters he faced June 2, the last after umpire Jim Joyce blew what would have been the game's final out at first base. However, he has a lowly 6.00 ERA since his controversial one-hitter, and the Detroit Tigers right-hander will look to bounce back from his shortest outing of the season when he takes the mound against the visiting Orioles.

Though it seemed like that might be an indication that Galarraga was reverting back to his form from his rookie 2008 season (13-7, 3.73 ERA), he has since looked more like the pitcher that went 6-10 with a 5.64 ERA last season.

If there's hope for Galarraga, it's that he's pitched well at home even aside from the one-hitter. He's 2-0 with a 2.22 ERA in five games at Comerica, but just 1-2 with a 7.78 ERA on the road.

Additionally, the Tigers (44-37) have proven difficult to beat at home regardless of who's on the mound. Detroit is an AL-best 28-12 at home.

Going for the Orioles, is Jake Arrieta (2-2, 5.81), who has the potential to be great, and the rookie right-hander won his first two major league starts while posting a 2.77 ERA. Since though, he's 0-2 with an 8.78 ERA in his last three.

Interim manager Juan Samuel certainly wasn't happy after Baltimore's fourth loss in five games Monday, hinting at roster changes - likely in his taxed bullpen - before the series continues.

"We're looking at a lot of things - whether we need an extra pitcher after using the 'pen so much today or whether we need another hitter," he said.

The extensive usage of the bullpen sets up against the Orioles in a very powerful FoxSheets Super Situation, one that has won six of every seven games over the last five seasons:

• Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 3 or less batters per start, after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings. (59-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.5%, +41.2 units. Rating = 4*)

Galarraga’s success also draws a huge trend indicating to fade Baltimore:

• BALTIMORE is 1-18 (-16.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 2.7, OPPONENT 6.7 - (Rating = 3*)

Baltimore has done very little well this season, and playing on the road (9-32, -17.0 units) and at night (16-42, -21.8 units) have been two of the worst situational spots. Tonight of course, they combine.

The StatFox Power Rating Line shows Detroit -200, and it’s a good bet that the actual line at Sportsbook.com reaches that level or higher by first pitch, which is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET.

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