MLB: Latos, Padres test 22-3 trend in key series finale

MLB: Latos, Padres test 22-3 trend in key series finale

2010-07-29

The Dodgers have been in a prolonged offensive dryspell, having failed to top the five-run mark in any game since the All-star break, scoring just 2.2 runs per game during that stretch. Making matters worse for their key series finale in San Diego on Thursday is that they’ll be squaring off against one of the league’s hottest pitchers in Mat Latos. The Padres are -140 favorites according to Sportsbook.com, and a key 22-3 StatFox Power Trend backs them based on that line.

Runs have certainly been hard to come by for the Dodgers of late. It would be quite surprising if that trend didn't continue in the series finale between them and the Padres on Thursday against Mat Latos, who is 4-0 with a major league-best 0.80 ERA since June 22. He hasn't lost in seven starts since June 4, and San Diego has won them all as the big right-hander has struck out 50 in 46 1-3 innings.

Overall, Los Angeles is trying to stop the Padres from winning an eighth consecutive game started by Latos.

Latos will be opposed by Vicente Padilla (4-3, 3.41 ERA), who has also been impressive of late, going 3-1 with a 1.04 ERA in his last five starts.

Los Angeles made a move just before Wednesday's game that could ignite an offense that has scored 12 runs in seven games. The Dodgers acquired outfielder Scott Podsednik from Kansas City for a pair of minor leaguers. Podsednik, among the major league leaders with 30 steals, is batting .379 during a 15-game hitting streak and gives the Dodgers another solid hitter with Manny Ramirez still on the disabled list.

With the Padres playing as -140 favorites, its noteworthy to cite a particular StatFox Power Trend that will apply this evening:

• SAN DIEGO is 22-3 (+17.9 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 5.1, OPPONENT 2.2 - (Rating = 4*)

San Diego has been nearly automatic in this favorite role this season, and in my opinion, it has more to do with the Padres’ bullpen than anything else. In fact, San Diego’s relief staff has been the best in the business all season long and currently boasts impressive numbers of 2.79 on ERA and 1.041 on WHIP. Typically, oddsmakers don’t account too much for bullpens when building their daily lines, but with as good as San Diego’s staff has been in the late innings, the Padres have been able to either keep or build leads after the starting pitchers have departed.

Over the last seven games, only 13 hitters have reached base on the San Diego bullpen in 23-1/3 innings, good for a WHIP of just 0.557.

If you’re not sold yet on the Padres’ chances to finish off this series in impressive fashion, consider this power StatFox Super Situation as the potential clincher:

• Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season-NL. (60-16 since 1997.) (78.9%, +37.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The Padres are favored with their best pitcher on the mound against a Dodgers’ team that is starving for runs. Seems pretty easy doesn’t it? We’ll find out this evening when the teams throw out the first pitch at about 6:35 PM ET.

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