MLB: Four Thursday MLB games boast powerful trends

MLB: Four Thursday MLB games boast powerful trends

2010-07-01

One of the things I make sure to do every morning throughout the baseball season is to dig through the FoxSheets Power Searches for the best available betting angles for that day’s action. Over the last couple of days I shared some of the best systems that I found intriguing. For Thursday, I’m concentrating on some interesting trends that are sure to affect four different nighttime games. Let’s take a look at those. For more key betting info, visit the GAME MATCHUPS page. Lines courtesy of Sportsbook.com.

(955) NY METS (SANTANA) at (956) WASHINGTON (HERNANDEZ) - 7:05 PM

Line: Mets -130, Total: 8 OV-105

The first game of interest finds the Mets coming back from Puerto Rico to visit Washington. The pitching matchup is a good one, with Johan Santana squaring off against Livan Hernandez. There are two interesting trends that could produce a correlated parlay for the game:

<li>NY METS are 17-4 UNDER (+12.5 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. The average score was NY METS 3.1, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 3*)

<li>JOHAN SANTANA is 73-13 (+48 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. The average score was SANTANA 5.1, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 3*)

The bottom line is that Santana is usually at his best against the league’s lesser teams, while at the same time, the Mets as a club don’t typically hit well when matched against weaker hitting foes. By the looks of these angles, this game has all the makings of a 4-3 Mets win.

(959) SAN FRANCISCO (BUMGARNER) at (960) COLORADO (COOK) 8:40 PM

Line: Colorado -140, Total: 9.5 -110

<li>COLORADO is 14-1 UNDER (+13 Units) after allowing 10 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 4.4, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 4*)

Colorado comes off a huge series win at San Diego, where it took two of three games. Unfortunately, Game 3 was the stinker, with the Padres whipping the Rockies 13-3. It sets up for a nice angle on an UNDER the total for today’s series opener with San Francisco though. After a big game in which the pitching staff was rocked, Colorado has come back well, holding opponents to just 3.6 runs per game. When you consider that many of these contests are at Coors Field, the allowance is even more impressive. Of course, it shouldn’t be all that shocking, as the Rockies’ bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this season with a WHIP of 1.276. It’s not often they are shelled in back-to-back games.

(967) OAKLAND (CAHILL) at (968) BALTIMORE (ARRIETA) 7:05 PM

Line: Oakland -140, Total: 8.5 OV-105

The A’s Trevor Cahill is quietly putting together one of the better seasons in the American League this year among starting pitchers. His WHIP is just 1.080 and his team is 9-3 in games he starts in 2010. His success leads to another side/total parlay opportunity:

<li>BALTIMORE is 1-16 (-14.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 2.8, OPPONENT 6.5 - (Rating = 2*)

<li>TREVOR CAHILL is 18-5 UNDER (+12.2 Units) vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CAHILL 4, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 2*)

In essence, Baltimore can’t hit good pitchers and Oakland’s offense typically isn’t good enough to produce OVER’s in such situations. Coming off Wednesday’s 9-6 win by the Orioles, expect a more focused pitching effort by the A’s.

(969) TAMPA BAY (NIEMANN) at (970) MINNESOTA (PAVANO) 8:10 PM

Line: Minnesota -115, Total: 8.5 OV-105

The Rays and Twins start a 4-game set from Minnesota on Thursday and the series opener is today’s FREE FoxSheet. On it you’ll find several strong trends, among them…

<li>JEFF NIEMANN is 12-0 (+12 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NIEMANN 7.8, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 2*)

<li>JOE MADDON is 13-41 (-27.5 Units) against the money line in road games in July games as the manager of TAMPA BAY. The average score was MADDON 3.4, OPPONENT 6.1 - (Rating = 3*)

Most teams that beat Niemann do so by hitting the long ball. The Twins have hit just 22 in their first 39 games at Target Field. However, this game actually produces a very strong conflicting trend as well, as the Rays have struggled horribly on the road in July under Joe Maddon. Perhaps you’re as surprised as me to hear that. With the Twins one of the better home teams in baseball, and the Rays one of the best to date on the road, it figures to be a good game either way. Perhaps the StatFox Power Rating, which shows Tampa Bay -140, could be the deciding factor for you.

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